By Dr Denver H. Bubble
Existing home sales nationwide were up 0.9% year over year in the past month. Existing home sales year over year had been negative since the second half of last year and the start of 2019. This is a bullish sign for housing prices nationwide and should be a leading indicator that the run-up in housing prices we have seen in metro Denver will continue.
First-time buyers are not driving the increase in existing home sales. We hit a low in 2011 of 0.5% of the adult population buying their first home and are only up around 0.8%, which is well below the peak of 1.2% that occurred during the pre-housing bubble period before the financial crisis.
There is still a lot of mismatch between supply and demand nationwide for housing. According to the Census Bureau, in 2018 the US added 1.5 million new households but built less than 1.2 million new housing units. Nationwide and in the metro Denver area housing inventory is still below historical levels, putting further upward pressures on prices.
We still haven’t heard back from DMAR on our questions regarding the identification of discrepancies in their metro Denver housing reports. We will keep a close eye on the July report, but also encourage our fans to keep the pressure up until we get answers.