Neighborhood Inscope

Housing Inventory Hits ’19 High, But Single-Family Sold Home Price Hits Record of $553,371. Should Bears Give Up?

By Dr Denver H. Bubble

Mon May 13 2019

Only one word to describe the April ’19 DMAR housing stats: Up. Month over month, prices in the Denver Metro area had an increase, rising 1.20% for median and 3.87% for average residential prices. Single-family homes sold price hit a record high of $553,371. Year over year the pace of the housing prices increase rose as well with the average residential prices rising 1.5%, and the median residential prices are flat from April 2018 to April 2019. We were in line with our forecast of a 1.11% rise for single-family homes average sold price rising 1.51% year over year and the median rising 0.5% year over year. In our next forecasting call, we will make sure to mention if it is average or median prices.

Housing inventory is up 11.44% to 7,012 from March to April. However, if we look at the year over year inventory statistics, inventory is also way up at 36.89%. The 7,012 homes available were still far below the historical norm of 15,339, showing the marketing inventory is still tight relative to Denver's history. Overall there are only about 1.5 months of housing inventory in the metro Denver market. A healthy market usually has about 6 months of inventory.

Sold homes were down almost 7% year over year, but up a meager 4.17% month over month which was expected as April is one of the busiest months of the year.

Homes are sitting for longer with the average home sitting on the market for 28 days up 33.33% year over year, but down 12.5% from March.

We have been getting a lot of feedback from concerned fans on when the bubble is going to burst and by how much prices are going to decline? Even though prices are rising to records highs, they are still in line with our forecast. April 2018 was when prices hit the highest point for 2018.  Average prices are only up 1.5% for single-family houses in April 2019 from last year. Our best case for average prices increase for single-family sold homes would be between 1% and 2% year over year in 2020. So we would say the high side case would be between $558,000 to $564,000 next year.

If the economy slows down due to external factors such as Trump’s trade war or the business cycle turning, no matter how low the Federal Reserves push down rates we see prices dropping. But don’t look to prices touching the lows of 2011-2012. Our bear case for the next year of prices would be a maximum 5% decline. When we get close to 2020, we will give an outlook for 2021. So make sure to bookmark this post and see our results next year. We figure we won’t be hearing from the real estate cheerleaders at the Denver Post even if we are right. But we don’t write for them, we write for the families who are looking to buy or sell their homes in the metro Denver area. So please share us on Facebook and Twitter, or even YouTube to help your friends and family make the right decision about their real estate transactions in the metro Denver area.