By Dr Denver H. Bubble
Sorry for the long hiatus, we have been beating the post-holiday blues with a long extended vacation at the beach somewhere warm. We came back to Denver full of life and revitalized and it appears the morbid metro Denver real estate market did as well after we took a look at the Denver Metro Association of Realtors stats for December. Month over month, prices continued to meekly rise, by 1% for both median and average residential prices. Year over year the pace of the housing price increases continued to decline with the average residential prices rising by only 4.7% and the median residential prices rising 3.9% from December 2017.
Housing inventory is down again almost 26% to 5,577. However, if we look at the year over year inventory statistics, inventory is up 45%, which is a good sign for buyers heading into 2019. Sold homes were crushed again down almost 18% month over month and almost 23% year over year. Sellers in the future will have to drop their prices if they want to sell their homes. The big test for this will be in March with the start of the spring selling season.
Homes are sitting for longer with the average home sitting on the market for 39 days up a staggering 21.9% month over month and 8% year over year.
We are still not in a buyer's market yet, but we will have to wait until the spring to see what the outlook will be for 2019 prices. Jill Schaffer, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee, said, "We ended 2018 with 5.52% fewer sales and 44.71% more active listings for buyers to choose from in 2017.” This outcome for 2018 aligned with our predictions that the bubble would begin to burst in 2018, with fewer sales, more inventory and slower price appreciation, all three which happened. Look for increased pricing pressure and higher inventories in 2019. With more forecasters predicting a recession in 2019, the bubble burst will accelerate into 2019.